Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19

• Published in: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Vol. 371; no. 6531
• Main Authors: Brauner, Jan M., Mindermann, Sören, Sharma, Mrinank, Johnston, David, Salvatier, John, Gavenčiak, Tomáš, Stephenson, Anna B., Leech, Gavin, Altman, George, Mikulik, Vladimir, Norman, Alexander John, Monrad, Joshua Teperowski, Besiroglu, Tamay, Ge, Hong, Hartwick, Meghan A., Teh, Yee Whye, Chindelevitch, Leonid, Gal, Yarin, Kulveit, Jan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States The American Association for the Advancement of Science 19.02.2021; American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Subjects: Asia - epidemiology; Bayes Theorem; Bayesian analysis; Commerce; Communicable Disease Control; Constraining; Coronaviridae; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; COVID-19 - prevention & control; COVID-19 - transmission; Death; Disease control; Disease transmission; Education; Effect Size; Empirical analysis; Epidemiology; Estimates; Europe - epidemiology; Fatalities; Government; Health Policy; Health risks; Humans; Intervention; Mathematical models; Modelling; Models, Theoretical; Mortality; Nightclubs; Observational studies; Online; Pandemics; Pandemics - prevention & control; Parameter uncertainty; Physical Distancing; Respiratory diseases; Schools; Sensitivity analysis; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Shelter in place; Trends; Universities; Viral diseases; Asia; Europe
• ISSN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.abd9338

Early in 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission was curbed in many countries by imposing combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions. Sufficient data on transmission have now accumulated to discern the effectiveness of individual interventions. Brauner et al. amassed and curated data from 41 countries as input to a model to identify the individual nonpharmaceutical interventions that were the most effective at curtailing transmission during the early pandemic. Limiting gatherings to fewer than 10 people, closing high-exposure businesses, and closing schools and universities were each more effective than stay-at-home orders, which were of modest effect in slowing transmission. Science , this issue p. eabd9338 The effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the early phase of the pandemic is quantified. Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of different NPIs at reducing transmission is poorly understood. We gathered chronological data on the implementation of NPIs for several European and non-European countries between January and the end of May 2020. We estimated the effectiveness of these NPIs, which range from limiting gathering sizes and closing businesses or educational institutions to stay-at-home orders. To do so, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model that links NPI implementation dates to national case and death counts and supported the results with extensive empirical validation. Closing all educational institutions, limiting gatherings to 10 people or less, and closing face-to-face businesses each reduced transmission considerably. The additional effect of stay-at-home orders was comparatively small.