Impact of Longitudinal Changes in Metabolic Syndrome Status over 2 Years on 10-Year Incident Diabetes Mellitus

• Published in: Diabetes & metabolism journal Vol. 43; no. 4; pp. 530 - 538
• Main Authors: Huh, Ji Hye, Ahn, Sung Gyun, Kim, Young In, Go, Taehwa, Sung, Ki-Chul, Choi, Jae Hyuk, Koh, Kwang Kon, Kim, Jang Young
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Korea (South) Korean Diabetes Association / Daehan Dangnyobyeong Hakoe 01.08.2019; Korean Diabetes Association; 대한당뇨병학회
• Subjects: Adult; Aged; Alcohol use; Blood pressure; Body mass index; Cardiovascular disease; Cholesterol; Chronic illnesses; Cohort analysis; Diabetes; diabetes mellitus; Diabetes Mellitus - epidemiology; Diabetes Mellitus - etiology; Female; Females; Follow-Up Studies; Glucose; Health Status; Humans; Incidence; Insulin resistance; Kaplan-Meier Estimate; Life Style; Male; Males; Metabolic disorders; Metabolic syndrome; Metabolic Syndrome - complications; Middle Aged; Obesity; Original; Plasma; Prospective Studies; Republic of Korea - epidemiology; Risk Factors; Variables; Variance analysis; 내과학; Republic of Korea; United States > US; Metabolic syndrome; Diabetes mellitus; Life style
• ISSN: 2233-6079; 2233-6087
• DOI: 10.4093/dmj.2018.0111

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a known predictor of diabetes mellitus (DM), but whether longitudinal changes in MetS status modify the risk for DM remains unclear. We investigated whether changes in MetS status over 2 years modify the 10-year risk of incident DM. We analyzed data from 7,317 participants aged 40 to 70 years without DM at baseline, who took part in 2001 to 2011 Korean Genome Epidemiology Study. Subjects were categorized into four groups based on repeated longitudinal assessment of MetS status over 2 years: non-MetS, resolved MetS, incident MetS, and persistent MetS. The hazard ratio (HR) of new-onset DM during 10 years was calculated in each group using Cox models. During the 10-year follow-up, 1,099 participants (15.0%) developed DM. Compared to the non-MetS group, the fully adjusted HRs for new-onset DM were 1.28 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92 to 1.79) in the resolved MetS group, 1.75 (95% CI, 1.30 to 2.37) in the incident MetS group, and 1.98 (95% CI, 1.50 to 2.61) in the persistent MetS group ( for trend <0.001). The risk of DM in subjects with resolved MetS was significantly attenuated compared to those with persistent MetS over 2 years. In addition, the adjusted HR for 10-year developing DM gradually increased as the number of MetS components increased 2 years later. We found that discrete longitudinal changes pattern in MetS status over 2 years associated with 10-year risk of DM. These findings suggest that monitoring change of MetS status and controlling it in individuals may be important for risk prediction of DM.