Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

• Published in: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Vol. 372; no. 6538
• Main Authors: Davies, Nicholas G., Abbott, Sam, Barnard, Rosanna C., Jarvis, Christopher I., Kucharski, Adam J., Munday, James D., Pearson, Carl A. B., Russell, Timothy W., Tully, Damien C., Washburne, Alex D., Wenseleers, Tom, Gimma, Amy, Waites, William, Wong, Kerry L. M., van Zandvoort, Kevin, Silverman, Justin D., Diaz-Ordaz, Karla, Keogh, Ruth, Eggo, Rosalind M., Funk, Sebastian, Jit, Mark, Atkins, Katherine E., Edmunds, W. John
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States The American Association for the Advancement of Science 09.04.2021; American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Basic Reproduction Number; Child; Child, Preschool; Communicable Disease Control; Coronaviridae; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; COVID-19 - epidemiology; COVID-19 - mortality; COVID-19 - transmission; COVID-19 - virology; COVID-19 Vaccines; Demographics; Disease control; Disease transmission; Dynamic models; England - epidemiology; Epidemiology; Europe - epidemiology; Fatalities; Female; Hospitalization; Humans; Infant; Inferences; Intervals; Male; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Middle Aged; Models, Theoretical; Mutation; Online; Respiratory diseases; Robustness (mathematics); SARS-CoV-2 - genetics; SARS-CoV-2 - growth & development; SARS-CoV-2 - pathogenicity; Series (mathematics); Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Severity of Illness Index; Socioeconomic Factors; Statistical analysis; Subpopulations; United States - epidemiology; Vaccination; Vaccines; Viral diseases; Viral Load; Virus attachment; Viruses; Young Adult; England; United States; Europe; Denmark; United Kingdom > UK; United States > US; Switzerland
• ISSN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.abg3055

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has the capacity to generate variants with major genomic changes. The UK variant B.1.1.7 (also known as VOC 202012/01) has many mutations that alter virus attachment and entry into human cells. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, Davies et al. characterized the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant in the United Kingdom. The authors found that the variant is 43 to 90% more transmissible than the predecessor lineage but saw no clear evidence for a change in disease severity, although enhanced transmission will lead to higher incidence and more hospital admissions. Large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur after the easing of control measures, and it may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to control the epidemic. Science , this issue p. eabg3055 The major coronavirus variant that emerged at the end of 2020 in the UK is more transmissible than its predecessors and could spark resurgences. A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.