Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change

Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but...

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Published inGlobal change biology Vol. 22; no. 6; pp. 2013 - 2024
Main Authors Ficetola, Gentile Francesco, Colleoni, Emiliano, Renaud, Julien, Scali, Stefano, Padoa-Schioppa, Emilio, Thuiller, Wilfried
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.06.2016
Subjects
Adaptation
Adaptation, Physiological
amphibians
Animals
Bergmann's rule
Biological Evolution
Body Size
Caudata
Climate Change
ectothermic vertebrates
Europe
Geography
local adaptation
Middle East
Models, Biological
morphological evolution
Morphology
NDVI
Precipitation
Reptiles & amphibians
Spine - anatomy & histology
Temperature
Urodela - anatomy & histology
ectothermic vertebrates
local adaptation
precipitation
morphological evolution
temperature
NDVI
Bergmann's rule
amphibians
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Summary:Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but teasing apart these processes is difficult. Here, we built on the number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) in ectothermic vertebrates, a known genetically based feature, to establish a link with body size and evaluate how climate change might affect the future morphological response of this group of species. First, we show that in old‐world salamanders, NTV variation is strongly related to changes in body size. Secondly, using 22 salamander species as a case study, we found support for relationships between the spatial variation in selected bioclimatic variables and NTV for most of species. For 44% of species, precipitation and aridity were the predominant drivers of geographical variation of the NTV. Temperature features were dominant for 31% of species, while for 19% temperature and precipitation played a comparable role. This two‐step analysis demonstrates that ectothermic vertebrates may evolve in response to climate change by modifying the number of thoracic vertebrae. These findings allow to develop scenarios for potential morphological evolution under future climate change and to identify areas and species in which the most marked evolutionary responses are expected. Resistance to climate change estimated from species distribution models was positively related to present‐day species morphological response, suggesting that the ability of morphological evolution may play a role for species’ persistence under climate change. The possibility that present‐day capacity for local adaptation might help the resistance response to climate change can be integrated into analyses of the impact of global changes and should also be considered when planning management actions favouring species persistence.
Bibliography:istex:B72D29913F6BFC4377AF0ECE3835FE5AA65BC3DB
ArticleID:GCB13255
European Research Council
European Community's Seven Framework Programme - No. FP7/2007- 2013; No. 281422
ark:/67375/WNG-5NJ9VHS3-1
Univ. Milano-Bicocca
Table S1. Candidate models relating the number of vertebrae to bioclimatic variables in salamander species. Table S2. Mean and range of the number of vertebrae and bioclimatic variables across the populations of the study species. Table S3. Importance of bioclimatic variables for the spatial variation of the number of trunk vertebrae. Table S4. Expected proportional change for the number of vertebrae in salamander species, under different scenarios of climate change. Table S5. Test of significant relationships between present morphological response, future morphological response, resistance to climate change and exposure to climate change using ranged major axis regression (RMA). Table S6. Correlation between expected morphological response to climate change (variation for the number of vertebrae), and expected variation in suitability, across the range of salamander species. Table S7. Intraspecific variation: Pearson's correlation of the future morphological response (averaged across all the species), between different scenarios of climate change. Figure S1. Distribution of populations analysed. Figure S2. Relationship between average body size (SVL) and number of thoracic vertebrae in 33 species of urodeles. Figure S3. Partial regression plots, showing the relationships between bioclimatic variables and the number of vertebrae across eleven salamander species. Figure S4. Relationships between bioclimatic variables and the number of vertebrae across four salamander species. Figure S5. Predictive performance of the species distribution models built for 22 species of salamanders. Figure S6. Intraspecific variation in morphological response (%) for the number of trunk vertebrae, expected in salamander species under the climate change scenarios (a) HE2.6; (b) HE6.0; (c) HE8.5; (d) GF4.5; (e) HD4.5 and (f) IP4.5. Figure S7. Intraspecific variation in morphological response (%) averaged across multiple salamander species, expected under seven climate change scenarios. Figure S8. Morphological variability for the number of thoracic vertebrae, measured at the species and at the population level.
ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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content type line 23
ISSN:1354-1013
1365-2486
DOI:10.1111/gcb.13255