Global tropical cyclone activity: A link to the North Atlantic Oscillation

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 27; no. 1; pp. 129 - 132
• Main Authors: Elsner, James B., Kocher, Bethany
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.01.2000; American Geophysical Union
• Subjects: Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Marine; Physics of the oceans; Sea-air exchange processes; AN, North Atlantic; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation; Factor analysis; Statistical analysis; El Nino; Tropical cyclone; Southern oscillation; Time series
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1029/1999GL010893

An index of global tropical cyclone activity (GTCA) is extracted from an interbasin dispersion matrix composed of correlations in the frequency of tropical cyclones among the five principal basins of activity over the period 1966–1998. The extraction is performed using a single‐factor common factor analysis model. Factor scores provide the index of GTCA. The time series of factor scores is matched with annual series' of the El Niño‐southern oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) revealing a statistical link to the NAO, but not to the ENSO. Results suggest a greater role of high latitude atmospheric and oceanic processes in modulating tropical cyclone climate than previously considered.