Forecasting Air Quality in Taiwan by Using Machine Learning

• Published in: Scientific reports Vol. 10; no. 1; p. 4153
• Main Authors: Lee, Mike, Lin, Larry, Chen, Chih-Yuan, Tsao, Yu, Yao, Ting-Hsuan, Fei, Min-Han, Fang, Shih-Hau
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 05.03.2020; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 704/172/169/895; 704/172/4081; Environmental protection; Humanities and Social Sciences; Industrial pollution; Learning algorithms; Machine learning; multidisciplinary; Pollution sources; Power plants; Prediction models; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Weather; Taiwan
• ISSN: 2045-2322; 2045-2322
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-61151-7

This study proposes a gradient-boosting-based machine learning approach for predicting the PM 2.5 concentration in Taiwan. The proposed mechanism is evaluated on a large-scale database built by the Environmental Protection Administration, and Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan, which includes data from 77 air monitoring stations and 580 weather stations performing hourly measurements over 1 year. By learning from past records of PM 2.5 and neighboring weather stations’ climatic information, the forecasting model works well for 24-h prediction at most air stations. This study also investigates the geographical and meteorological divergence for the forecasting results of seven regional monitoring areas. We also compare the prediction performance between Taiwan, Taipei, and London; analyze the impact of industrial pollution; and propose an enhanced version of the prediction model to improve the prediction accuracy. The results indicate that Taipei and London have similar prediction results because these two cities have similar topography (basin) and are financial centers without domestic pollution sources. The results also suggest that after considering industrial impacts by incorporating additional features from the Taichung and Thong-Siau power plants, the proposed method achieves significant improvement in the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) from 0.58 to 0.71. Moreover, for Taichung City the root-mean-square error decreases from 8.56 for the conventional approach to 7.06 for the proposed method.