Predicted dominance of variant Delta of SARS-CoV-2 before Tokyo Olympic Games, Japan, July 2021

Using numbers of SARS-CoV-2 variants detected in Japan as at 13 June 2021, relative instantaneous reproduction numbers (R RI ) of the R.1, Alpha, and Delta variants with respect to other strains circulating in Japan were estimated at 1.25, 1.44, and 1.95. Depending on the assumed serial interval dis...

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Published inEuro surveillance : bulletin européen sur les maladies transmissibles Vol. 26; no. 27; p. 1
Main Authors Ito, Kimihito, Piantham, Chayada, Nishiura, Hiroshi
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Saint-Maurice Centre Europeen pour la Surveillance Epidemiologique du SIDA (European Centre for the Epidemiological Monitoring of AIDS) 08.07.2021
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
Subjects
Antibodies
COVID-19
Olympic games
Rapid Communication
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Tokyo Japan
Japan
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Summary:Using numbers of SARS-CoV-2 variants detected in Japan as at 13 June 2021, relative instantaneous reproduction numbers (R RI ) of the R.1, Alpha, and Delta variants with respect to other strains circulating in Japan were estimated at 1.25, 1.44, and 1.95. Depending on the assumed serial interval distributions, R RI varies from 1.20–1.32 for R.1, 1.34–1.58 for Alpha, and 1.70–2.30 for Delta. The frequency of Delta is expected to take over Alpha in Japan before 23 July 2021.
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Correspondence: Kimihito Ito ( itok@czc.hokudai.ac.jp)
ISSN:1560-7917
1025-496X
1560-7917
DOI:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.27.2100570