A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain

• Published in: Engineering (Beijing, China) Vol. 3; no. 5; pp. 773 - 778
• Main Authors: Zhou, Tianjun, Chen, Xiaolong, Wu, Bo, Guo, Zhun, Sun, Yong, Zou, Liwei, Man, Wenmin, Zhang, Lixia, He, Chao
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.10.2017; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; Elsevier
• Subjects: Climate projection; Coupled climate model; East Asian monsoon; El Niño-Southern Oscillation; Past climate change; Regional climate model; Western North Pacific climate; Western North Pacific climate; Past climate change; Coupled climate model; East Asian monsoon; El Niño-Southern Oscillation; Climate projection; Regional climate model; El Ni(n)o-Southern Oscillation
• ISSN: 2095-8099
• DOI: 10.1016/J.ENG.2017.05.018

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP） is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Improving the performance of climate models over East Asia and the western North Pacific has been a challenge for the climate-modeling community. In this paper, we provide a synthesis robustness analysis of the climate models participating in CMIP-Phase 5 （CMIP5）. The strengths and weaknesses of the CMIP5 models are assessed from the perspective of climate mean state, interannual variability, past climate change during the mid-Pliocene （MP） and the last millennium, and climate projection. The added values of regional climate models relative to the driving global climate models are also assessed. Although an encouraging increase in credibility and an improvement in the simulation of mean states, interannual variability, and past climate changes are visible in the progression from CMIP3 to CMIPS, some previously noticed biases such as the ridge position of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the associated rainfall bias are still evident in CMIP5 models. Weaknesses are also evident in simulations of the interannual amplitude, such as El Nino- Southern Oscillation （ENSO）-monsoon relationships. Coupled models generally show better results than standalone atmospheric models in simulating both mean states and interannual variability. Multi-model intercomparison indicates significant uncertainties in the future projection of climate change, although precipitation increases consistently across models constrained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Regional ocean-atmosphere coupled models are recommended for the dynamical downscaling of climate change oroiections over the East Asia-western North Pacific domain.