Conditional Probability and the Cognitive Science of Conditional Reasoning
: This paper addresses the apparent mismatch between the normative and descriptive literatures in the cognitive science of conditional reasoning. Descriptive psychological theories still regard material implication as the normative theory of the conditional. However, over the last 20 years in the p...
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| Published in | Mind & language Vol. 18; no. 4; pp. 359 - 379 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Oxford, UK
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
01.09.2003
Blackwell |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0268-1064 1468-0017 |
| DOI | 10.1111/1468-0017.00232 |
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| Abstract | : This paper addresses the apparent mismatch between the normative and descriptive literatures in the cognitive science of conditional reasoning. Descriptive psychological theories still regard material implication as the normative theory of the conditional. However, over the last 20 years in the philosophy of language and logic the idea that material implication can account for everyday indicative conditionals has been subject to severe criticism. The majority view is now apparently in favour of a subjective conditional probability interpretation. A comparative model fitting exercise is presented that shows that a conditional probability model can explain as much of the data on indicative conditional reasoning tasks as psychological theories that supplement material implication with various rationally unjustified processing assumptions. Consequently, when people are asked to solve laboratory reasoning tasks, they can be seen as simply generalising their everyday probabilistic reasoning strategies to this novel context. |
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| AbstractList | This paper addresses the apparent mismatch between the normative and descriptive literatures in the cognitive science of conditional reasoning. Descriptive psychological theories still regard material implication as the normative theory of the conditional. However, over the last 20 years in the philosophy of language and logic the idea that material implication can account for everyday indicative conditionals has been subject to severe criticism. The majority view is now apparently in favour of a subjective conditional probability interpretation. A comparative model fitting exercise is presented that shows that a conditional probability model can explain as much of the data on abstract indicative conditional reasoning tasks as psychological theories that supplement material implication with various rationally unjustified processing assumptions. Consequently, when people are asked to solve laboratory reasoning tasks, they can be seen as simply generalising their everyday probabilistic reasoning strategies to this novel context. This paper addresses the apparent mismatch between the normative & descriptive literatures in the cognitive science of conditional reasoning. Descriptive psychological theories still regard material implication as the normative theory of the conditional. However, over the last 20 years in the philosophy of language & logic, the idea that material implication can account for everyday indicative conditionals has been subject to severe criticism. The majority view is now apparently in favor of a subjective conditional probability interpretation. A comparative model fitting exercise is presented that shows that a conditional probability model can explain as much of the data on abstract indicative conditional reasoning tasks as psychological theories that supplement material implication with various rationally unjustified processing assumptions. Consequently, when people are asked to solve laboratory reasoning tasks, they can be seen as simply generalizing their everyday probabilistic reasoning strategies to this novel context. 2 Figures, 56 References. Adapted from the source document : This paper addresses the apparent mismatch between the normative and descriptive literatures in the cognitive science of conditional reasoning. Descriptive psychological theories still regard material implication as the normative theory of the conditional. However, over the last 20 years in the philosophy of language and logic the idea that material implication can account for everyday indicative conditionals has been subject to severe criticism. The majority view is now apparently in favour of a subjective conditional probability interpretation. A comparative model fitting exercise is presented that shows that a conditional probability model can explain as much of the data on indicative conditional reasoning tasks as psychological theories that supplement material implication with various rationally unjustified processing assumptions. Consequently, when people are asked to solve laboratory reasoning tasks, they can be seen as simply generalising their everyday probabilistic reasoning strategies to this novel context. |
| Author | Oaksford, Mike Chater, Nick |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Mike surname: Oaksford fullname: Oaksford, Mike organization: 1 Cardiff University, UK oaksford@cardiff.ac.uk – sequence: 2 givenname: Nick surname: Chater fullname: Chater, Nick organization: 1 Cardiff University, UK oaksford@cardiff.ac.uk |
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| References_xml | – reference: Oaksford, M. and Chater, N. 1991: Against logicist cognitive science. Mind and Language. 6, 1-38. – reference: Edgington, D. 1995: On conditionals. Mind, 104, 235-329. – reference: Oaksford, M., Chater, N., and Grainger, B. 1999: Probabilistic effects in data selection. Thinking and Reasoning, 5, 193-243. – reference: Braine, M.D.S. and O'Brien, D.P. 1998: Mental Logic. London: Lawrence Erlbaum. – reference: Green. D.W. and Over, D.E. 2000: Decision theoretical effects in testing a causal conditional. Current Psychology of Cognition, 19, 51-68. – reference: Horwich, P. 1982: Probability and Evidence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. – reference: Rips, L.J. 1994: The Psychology of Proof. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. – reference: Manktelow, K.I. 1999: Reasoning and Thinking. Hove, Sussex: Psychology Press. – reference: Fedorov, V.V. 1972: Theory of Optimal Experiments. London: Academic Press. – reference: Jackson, F. 1987: Conditionals. Oxford: Basil Blackwell. – reference: Klauer, K.C. 1999: On the normative justification for information gain in Wason's selection task. Psychological Review, 106, 215-222. – reference: Schroyens, W., Schaeken, W. and D'Ydewalle, G. 2001: The processing of negations in conditional reasoning: A meta-analytic case study in mental model and/or mental logic theory. Thinking and Reasoning, 7, 121-172. – reference: Mackie, J.L. 1963: The paradox of confirmation. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 38, 265-277. – reference: Batchelder, W.H. and Riefer, D.M. 1999: Theoretical and empirical review of multinomial modeling. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 6, 57-86. – reference: George, C. 1997: Reasoning from uncertain premises. Thinking and Reasoning, 3, 161-190. – reference: Wason, P.C. and Johnson-Laird, P.N. 1972: Psychology of Reasoning: Structure and Content. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. – reference: Lindley, D.V. 1956: On a measure of the information provided by an experiment. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 27, 986-1005. – reference: Oaksford, M., Chater, N. and Larkin, J. 2000: Probabilities and polarity biases in conditional inference. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 26, 883-899. – reference: Oaksford, M. and Chater, N. 2001: The probabilistic approach to human reasoning. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 5, 349-357. – reference: Liu, I., Lo, K., and Wu, J. 1996: A probabilistic interpretation of 'If-then.' Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 49A, 828-844. – reference: Oaksford, M. and Chater, N. 1998: Rationality in an uncertain world: Essays on the cognitive science of human reasoning. 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| SubjectTerms | Cognition Cognitive Processes Cognitive Science Conditional Clauses Linguistics Logic Philosophical logics. Philosophy of language Philosophy Philosophy of Language Probability Psychology Reasoning Subjectivity |
| Title | Conditional Probability and the Cognitive Science of Conditional Reasoning |
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