Computer technology and probable job destructions in Japan: An evaluation

• Published in: Journal of the Japanese and international economies Vol. 43; pp. 77 - 87
• Main Author: David, Benjamin
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Inc 01.03.2017; Elsevier
• Subjects: Automation; Computer technology; Economics and Finance; Humanities and Social Sciences; Japanese labor market; Random forest; C53; Automation; Japanese labor market; J21; Random forest; Computer technology; O33
• ISSN: 0889-1583; 1095-8681
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2017.01.001

•We evaluate the risk of job destructions in Japan due to computer technology.•We apply the methodology developed by Frey and Osborne (2013) and “Random forest”.•Our estimation suggests that 55% of Japanese jobs could be considered at risk.•Any difference of vulnerability is detected according to gender.•We find that non-regular workers are more threatened than regular workers. Computer technology is currently experiencing important developments by generating new tools and methods with increasing capacities. This suggests that a growing share of economic tasks could be performed by this new capital at the expense of labor. This paper evaluates the risk of job destructions induced by computer technology in Japan. We aim at assessing the vulnerability of employment from a technical point of view by considering jobs’ differential dotation in non-programmable skills. Relying on machine learning technique, we find evidence that approximatively 55% of jobs are susceptible to be carried by computer capital in the next years. We also show that there is no significant difference on the basis of gender. On the contrary, non-regular jobs (those that concern temporary and part-time workers) are more vulnerable to computer technology diffusion than the others. These findings, based on technical background, shed light on the scale of the potential capital/labor substitution but this dynamics will also depends on economic and social factors.