What can we learn about climate feedbacks from short-term climate variations?

• Published in: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography Vol. 65; no. 1; pp. 18887 - 17
• Main Author: Koumoutsaris, SYMEON
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Stockholm Taylor & Francis 01.01.2013; Ubiquity Press; Stockholm University Press
• Subjects: Aerosols; Budgets; Climate; Climate change; Clouds; El Nino; ENSO; Feedback; feedbacks; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; long-term; Marine; Meteorology; Oceanography; radiative kernels; Southern oscillation
• ISSN: 1600-0870; 0280-6495; 1600-0870
• DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.18887

This study examines the radiative feedbacks resulting from changes in the climate over the last 30 yr. These 'short-term' feedbacks correspond to both external changes in the forcing [from greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols etc.] and internal climate variations [mostly due to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)]. They differ from the 'long-term' (century scale, mainly due to GHG warming) feedbacks both in magnitude (by 24% on the global average) and geographical distribution, according to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 multi-model dataset. In addition, the inter-model spread of the short-term feedbacks is larger than the long-term ones even for the models with the best ENSO performance, which indicates that important aspects of the ENSO variability are still poorly understood and/or simulated. Information from observations and from advanced reanalysis systems can be very useful to improve the model short-term climate responses. However, long and accurate observational records are critical in order to obtain confident results.