Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Tokyo through an Agent-Based Model with Data Assimilation

In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model together with a particle filter approach to study the spread of COVID-19. Investigations are mainly performed on the metropolis of Tokyo, but other prefectures of Japan are also briefly surveyed. A novel method for evaluating the effective reproductio...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of clinical medicine Vol. 11; no. 9; p. 2401
Main Authors Sun, Chang, Richard, Serge, Miyoshi, Takemasa, Tsuzu, Naohiro
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Switzerland MDPI AG 25.04.2022
MDPI
Subjects
agent-based model
Asymptomatic
Clinical medicine
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 vaccines
Data assimilation
effective reproduction number
Epidemics
Experiments
Mathematical Physics
Mathematics
Medical research
Probability
Random variables
COVID-19
agent-based model
effective reproduction number
data assimilation
agent-based model data assimilation COVID-19 effective reproduction number MSC: 92D30
effective reproduction number MSC: 92D30
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Summary:In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model together with a particle filter approach to study the spread of COVID-19. Investigations are mainly performed on the metropolis of Tokyo, but other prefectures of Japan are also briefly surveyed. A novel method for evaluating the effective reproduction number is one of the main outcomes of our approach. Other unknown parameters are also evaluated. Uncertain quantities, such as, for example, the probability that an infected agent develops symptoms, are tested and discussed, and the stability of our computations is examined. Detailed explanations are provided for the model and for the assimilation process.
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ISSN:2077-0383
2077-0383
DOI:10.3390/jcm11092401