Predicting potential distribution of Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen in China under climate change scenarios

• Published in: Ecology and evolution Vol. 12; no. 2; pp. e8629 - n/a
• Main Authors: Zhao, Qian, Mi, Ze‐Yuan, Lu, Chan, Zhang, Xin‐Fei, Chen, Li‐Jun, Wang, Shi‐Qiang, Niu, Jun‐Feng, Wang, Zhe‐Zhi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.02.2022; John Wiley and Sons Inc; Wiley
• Subjects: 21st century; Climate change; Climate effects; Climate prediction; Distribution patterns; ecological niche modeling; Entropy; Exploitation; General circulation models; Germplasm; Impact prediction; Maximum entropy; Plant species; Population Ecology; prediction of suitable region; Variables; Woody plants; Ziziphus; Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen; China; ecological niche modeling; maximum entropy; Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen; prediction of suitable region
• ISSN: 2045-7758; 2045-7758
• DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8629

Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen is a woody plant species of the family Rhamnaceae (order Rhamnales) that possesses high nutritional and medicinal value. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of Z. spinosa is of great significance for the investigation, protection, and exploitation of this germplasm resource. For this study, optimized maximum entropy models were employed to predict the distribution patterns and changes of its present (1970–2000) and future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) potential suitable regions in China under multiple climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 & SSP5‐8.5). The results revealed that the total area of the present potential suitable region for Z. spinosa is 162.60 × 104 km2, which accounts for 16.94% of China's territory. Within this area, the regions having low, medium, and high suitability were 80.14 × 104 km2, 81.50 × 104 km2, and 0.96 × 104 km2, respectively, with the high suitability regions being distributed primarily in Shanxi, Hebei, and Beijing Provinces. Except for SSP‐1‐2.6‐2070s, SSP‐5‐8.5‐2070s, and SSP‐5‐8.5‐2090s, the suitable areas for Z. spinosa in the future increased to different degrees. Meanwhile, considering the distribution of Z. spinosa during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study predicted that the low impact areas of Z. spinosa were mainly restricted to Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Gansu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin Provinces. The results of core distributional shifts showed that, except for SSP1‐2.6, the center of the potential suitable region of Z. spinosa exhibited a trend of gradually shifting to the northwest. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of Ziziphus spinosa is of great significance for the investigation, protection, and exploitation of this germplasm resource. For this study, optimized maximum entropy models were employed to predict the distribution patterns and changes of its present (1970–2000) and future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) potential suitable regions in China under multiple climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5).