Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity
Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts...
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Published in | Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Vol. 353; no. 6296; pp. 242 - 246 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Goddard Space Flight Center
American Association for the Advancement of Science
15.07.2016
AAAS The American Association for the Advancement of Science |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Abstract | Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas–driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities. |
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AbstractList | Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities. |
Audience | PUBLIC |
Author | Hall, Timothy M. Lee, Chia-Ying Tippett, Michael K. Wing, Allison A. Sobel, Adam H. Camargo, Suzana J. |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Adam H. surname: Sobel fullname: Sobel, Adam H. – sequence: 2 givenname: Suzana J. surname: Camargo fullname: Camargo, Suzana J. – sequence: 3 givenname: Timothy M. surname: Hall fullname: Hall, Timothy M. – sequence: 4 givenname: Chia-Ying surname: Lee fullname: Lee, Chia-Ying – sequence: 5 givenname: Michael K. surname: Tippett fullname: Tippett, Michael K. – sequence: 6 givenname: Allison A. surname: Wing fullname: Wing, Allison A. |
BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27418502$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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CODEN | SCIEAS |
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Keywords | Cyclones Tropics Human Influence On Climate |
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Snippet | Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical... |
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SubjectTerms | Aerosols Air pollution Assessments Climate change Cooling effects Cyclones Cyclonic Storms Disasters Global Warming Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse gases Human Activities Human influences Humans Meteorology And Climatology Models, Theoretical REVIEWS Seasons Temperature Trends Tropical Climate |
Title | Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity |
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