Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts...

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Published inScience (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Vol. 353; no. 6296; pp. 242 - 246
Main Authors Sobel, Adam H., Camargo, Suzana J., Hall, Timothy M., Lee, Chia-Ying, Tippett, Michael K., Wing, Allison A.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Goddard Space Flight Center American Association for the Advancement of Science 15.07.2016
AAAS
The American Association for the Advancement of Science
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Abstract Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas–driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.
AbstractList Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.
Audience PUBLIC
Author Hall, Timothy M.
Lee, Chia-Ying
Tippett, Michael K.
Wing, Allison A.
Sobel, Adam H.
Camargo, Suzana J.
Author_xml – sequence: 1
  givenname: Adam H.
  surname: Sobel
  fullname: Sobel, Adam H.
– sequence: 2
  givenname: Suzana J.
  surname: Camargo
  fullname: Camargo, Suzana J.
– sequence: 3
  givenname: Timothy M.
  surname: Hall
  fullname: Hall, Timothy M.
– sequence: 4
  givenname: Chia-Ying
  surname: Lee
  fullname: Lee, Chia-Ying
– sequence: 5
  givenname: Michael K.
  surname: Tippett
  fullname: Tippett, Michael K.
– sequence: 6
  givenname: Allison A.
  surname: Wing
  fullname: Wing, Allison A.
BackLink https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27418502$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Keywords Cyclones
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Human Influence On Climate
Language English
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Snippet Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical...
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SubjectTerms Aerosols
Air pollution
Assessments
Climate change
Cooling effects
Cyclones
Cyclonic Storms
Disasters
Global Warming
Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse gases
Human Activities
Human influences
Humans
Meteorology And Climatology
Models, Theoretical
REVIEWS
Seasons
Temperature
Trends
Tropical Climate
Title Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity
URI https://www.jstor.org/stable/24750138
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160009339
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27418502
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