Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity

• Published in: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Vol. 353; no. 6296; pp. 242 - 246
• Main Authors: Sobel, Adam H., Camargo, Suzana J., Hall, Timothy M., Lee, Chia-Ying, Tippett, Michael K., Wing, Allison A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Goddard Space Flight Center American Association for the Advancement of Science 15.07.2016; AAAS; The American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Subjects: Aerosols; Air pollution; Assessments; Climate change; Cooling effects; Cyclones; Cyclonic Storms; Disasters; Global Warming; Greenhouse Effect; Greenhouse gases; Human Activities; Human influences; Humans; Meteorology And Climatology; Models, Theoretical; REVIEWS; Seasons; Temperature; Trends; Tropical Climate; Cyclones; Tropics; Human Influence On Climate
• ISSN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf6574

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas–driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.