Scenario-based forecast for the electricity demand in Qatar and the role of energy efficiency improvements

• Published in: Energy policy Vol. 127; pp. 155 - 164
• Main Authors: Khalifa, Ahmed, Caporin, Massimiliano, Di Fonzo, Tommaso
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.04.2019; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: C32; C53; Consumption; Economic forecasting; Efficiency; Elasticity; Electric power demand; Electricity; Electricity consumption; Electricity efficiency; Electricity pricing; Energy development; Energy efficiency; Energy policy; GDP; Gross Domestic Product; Markets; Mathematical models; O13; Population growth; Q47; Scenario-based forecast; O13; C53; Scenario-based forecast; C32; Electricity efficiency; Q47; Electricity consumption
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.047

We model the electricity consumption in the market segment that compose the Qatari electricity market. We link electricity consumption to GDP growth and Population Growth. Building on the estimated model, we develop long-range forecasts of electricity consumption from 2017 to 2030 over different scenarios for the economic drivers. In addition, we proxy for electricity efficiency improvements by reducing the long-run elasticity of electricity consumption to GDP and Population. We show that electricity efficiency has a crucial role in controlling the future development of electricity consumption. Energy policies should consider this aspect and support both electricity efficiency improvement programs, as well as a price reform. •We analyze the link between electricity consumption, GDP and Population in Qatar.•We develop long-range scenario-based forecasts of electricity consumption.•We show that electricity efficiency has a crucial role.•Energy policies should support the electricity efficiency improvement programs.