Drought risk probabilistic models based on extreme value theory

• Published in: Environmental science and pollution research international Vol. 30; no. 42; pp. 95945 - 95958
• Main Authors: Piwowar, Arkadiusz, Kuźmiński, Łukasz
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.09.2023; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Agriculture; Aquatic Pollution; atmospheric precipitation; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Case studies; Climate Change; climatic zones; Distribution functions; Drought; Droughts; Earth and Environmental Science; Economics; Ecotoxicology; Environment; Environmental Chemistry; Environmental Health; Environmental risk; Environmental science; Extreme value theory; Extreme values; Hydrology; Literature reviews; Mathematical models; Models, Statistical; Poland; Precipitation; Probabilistic models; Random variables; Research Article; Research methodology; risk; Risk assessment; Risk levels; Standardized precipitation index; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Poland; Climate extremes; Risk of drought; Probabilistic quantification; Extreme value theory; Environmental modelling
• ISSN: 1614-7499; 0944-1344; 1614-7499
• DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-29093-5

The article presents original, probabilistic models for the quantification of drought risk, based on generalized distribution functions for the distribution of maximum values as well as the standardized precipitation index. Using the models, a probabilistic measurement of drought risk has been made for three regions over four 5-year periods for each region. Three measurement points located in Poland were selected as a case study. The study provides an innovative approach in the field of probabilistic models of quantification; moreover, drought risk levels have been calculated for the selected locations. Furthermore, the method may be used for creating indexes for any climatic region subject to study.