Predictive modeling and probabilistic risk assessment of Clostridium perfringens in hamburgers and sandwiches

• Published in: Food science and biotechnology Vol. 30; no. 13; pp. 1733 - 1742
• Main Authors: Choi, Yun Hui, Park, Jin Hwa, Kang, Mi Seon, Yoon, Yohan, Ha, Sang-do, Kim, Hyun Jung
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Singapore Springer Singapore 01.12.2021; Springer Nature B.V; 한국식품과학회
• Subjects: Chemistry; Chemistry and Materials Science; Clostridium perfringens; Dogs; Evaluation; Food Science; Mathematical models; Microorganisms; Nutrition; Prediction models; Probabilistic risk assessment; Research Article; Risk assessment; Risk management; Statistical analysis; 식품과학; Risk assessment; Hamburgers and sandwiches; Probabilistic; Predictive model; Clostridium perfringens
• ISSN: 1226-7708; 2092-6456
• DOI: 10.1007/s10068-021-01000-z

This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for the survival of Clostridium perfringens in hamburgers and sandwiches and to evaluate their microbial risk. The primary model was developed in hamburgers using 4 strains of C. perfringens at 5, 10, 15, 25 and 37 °C, and the kinetic parameters of the primary model were fitted well with the Weibull model ( R 2  ≥ 0.95). The secondary model was developed and validated in hamburgers and sandwiches using the Davey model, which was evaluated by B f , A f , and RMSE values within the acceptable range. A probabilistic risk model was developed and simulated using @Risk program to estimate the probability of infection (P inf ) of C. perfringens based on the data on prevalence (n = 100), time, temperature, and consumption of hamburgers and sandwiches (150.00 ± 20.96 g). Based on the simulation model, the mean C. perfringens exposure dose was 0.00976 CFU/g, and the estimated mean P inf was 1.78 × 10 –13 , which was very low in comparison with the current available data. The proposed model and the result can thus be useful to establish risk management options and microbial criteria for C. perfringens contamination in hamburgers and sandwiches .