How many modes are needed to predict climate bifurcations? Lessons from an experiment

According to everyone's experience, predicting the weather reliably over more than 8 d seems an impossible task for our best weather agencies. At the same time, politicians and citizens are asking scientists for climate projections several decades into the future to guide economic and environme...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inNonlinear processes in geophysics Vol. 29; no. 1; pp. 17 - 35
Main Authors Dubrulle, Bérengère, Daviaud, François, Faranda, Davide, Marié, Louis, Saint-Michel, Brice
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Gottingen Copernicus GmbH 07.02.2022
European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Copernicus Publications
Subjects
Analysis
Artificial intelligence
Atmosphere
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Atmospheric circulation
Atmospheric models
Bifurcations
Biosphere
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide emissions
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Condensed Matter
Cryosphere
Cyclones
Degrees of freedom
Economics
El Nino
El Nino phenomena
Energy
Environmental policy
Fluctuations
La Nina
Laboratories
Lithosphere
Metastable state
Neural networks
Ocean models
Ocean, Atmosphere
Partial differential equations
Physics
Sciences of the Universe
Statistical Mechanics
Temperature
Terrestrial environments
Vortices
Weather
Weather forecasting
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Summary:According to everyone's experience, predicting the weather reliably over more than 8 d seems an impossible task for our best weather agencies. At the same time, politicians and citizens are asking scientists for climate projections several decades into the future to guide economic and environmental policies, especially regarding the maximum admissible emissions of CO.sub.2 . To what extent is this request scientifically admissible?
ISSN:1607-7946
1023-5809
1607-7946
DOI:10.5194/npg-29-17-2022