Some Counterintuitive Dependencies of Tropical Cyclone Frequency on Parameters in a GCM

• Published in: Journal of the atmospheric sciences Vol. 69; no. 7; pp. 2272 - 2283
• Main Authors: MING ZHAO, HELD, Isaac M, LIN, Shian-Jiann
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Boston, MA American Meteorological Society 01.07.2012
• Subjects: Atmospheric models; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Clouds; Convection; Cyclones; Damping; Earth, ocean, space; Entrainment; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Exact sciences and technology; Experiments; External geophysics; Fluid dynamics; Formulations; Geophysical fluids; Global climate; Global climate models; High resolution; Hurricanes; Hydrodynamics; Meteorology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Modelling; Noise; Parameter identification; Parameterization; Parameters; Physics; Physics of the high neutral atmosphere; Sensitivity; Simulation; Statistical methods; Storms; Studies; Tropical cyclones; Uncertainty; Divergence; Cumulus cloud; Entrainment (atmosphere, ocean); Atmosphere model; General circulation models; sensitivity analysis; Climate models; digital simulation; damping; Geophysical fluid dynamics; intensity; parametrization; hurricanes; Severe weather; Tropical cyclone; uncertainties; storms; high resolution
• ISSN: 0022-4928; 1520-0469
• DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-11-0238.1

Abstract High-resolution global climate models (GCMs) have been increasingly utilized for simulations of the global number and distribution of tropical cyclones (TCs), and how they might change with changing climate. In contrast, there is a lack of published studies on the sensitivity of TC genesis to parameterized processes in these GCMs. The uncertainties in these formulations might be an important source of uncertainty in the future projections of TC statistics. This study investigates the sensitivity of the global number of TCs in present-day simulations using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory High Resolution Atmospheric Model (GFDL HIRAM) to alterations in physical parameterizations. Two parameters are identified to be important in TC genesis frequency in this model: the horizontal cumulus mixing rate, which controls the entrainment into convective cores within the convection parameterization, and the strength of the damping of the divergent component of the horizontal flow. The simulated global number of TCs exhibits nonintuitive response to incremental changes of both parameters. As the cumulus mixing rate increases, the model produces nonmonotonic response in global TC frequency with an initial sharp increase and then a decrease. However, storm mean intensity rises monotonically with the mixing rate. As the strength of the divergence damping increases, the model produces a continuous increase of global number of TCs and hurricanes with little change in storm mean intensity. Mechanisms for explaining these nonintuitive responses are discussed.