Modelling and optimal control of pneumonia disease with cost-effective strategies

• Published in: Journal of biological dynamics Vol. 11; no. sup2; pp. 400 - 426
• Main Authors: Tilahun, Getachew Teshome, Makinde, Oluwole Daniel, Malonza, David
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Taylor & Francis 01.08.2017; Taylor & Francis Ltd; Taylor & Francis Group
• Subjects: Basic Reproduction Number; cost-effectiveness analysis; Disease control; Disease transmission; Humans; Mathematical models; Models, Biological; Nonlinear Dynamics; numerical simulation; optimal control; Pandemics; Pneumonia; Pneumonia - prevention & control; Pneumonia dynamics; Simulation; stability analysis; optimal control; cost-effectiveness analysis; stability analysis; numerical simulation; Pneumonia dynamics
• ISSN: 1751-3758; 1751-3766; 1751-3766
• DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2017.1337245

We propose and analyse a nonlinear mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of pneumonia disease in a population of varying size. The deterministic compartmental model is studied using stability theory of differential equations. The effective reproduction number is obtained and also the asymptotic stability conditions for the disease free and as well as for the endemic equilibria are established. The possibility of bifurcation of the model and the sensitivity indices of the basic reproduction number to the key parameters are determined. Using Pontryagin's maximum principle, the optimal control problem is formulated with three control strategies: namely disease prevention through education, treatment and screening. The cost-effectiveness analysis of the adopted control strategies revealed that the combination of prevention and treatment is the most cost-effective intervention strategies to combat the pneumonia pandemic. Numerical simulation is performed and pertinent results are displayed graphically.