Historical and future climates over the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin simulated by a regional climate model in CORDEX

• Published in: Climate dynamics Vol. 56; no. 9-10; pp. 2749 - 2771
• Main Authors: Wang, Xuejia, Chen, Deliang, Pang, Guojin, Gou, Xiaohua, Yang, Meixue
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.05.2021; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: 5-day precipitation; Albedo; Analysis; Atmospheric precipitations; Climate change; Climate models; Climate projection; Climatic changes; Climatic extremes; Climatic indexes; Climatology; Daily precipitation; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth and Related Environmental Sciences; Earth Sciences; Environmental risk; Extreme precipitation; Extreme temperature; Flood risk; Future climates; Future temperatures; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap; Global climate; Global climate models; Greenhouse gases; High altitude; Interannual variability; Mean temperatures; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Oceanography; Precipitation; Precipitation variability; Rain; Rainfall; Rainfall intensity; RCP scenario; Regional climate models; Regional climates; REMO; River basins; Rivers; Temperature; Winter; Yellow river basin; China; Yellow River; Extreme precipitation; RCP scenario; Yellow river basin; REMO; Climate projection; Extreme temperature
• ISSN: 0930-7575; 1432-0894
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05617-4

Despite the importance of the Yellow River to China, climate change for the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) has been investigated far less than for other regions. This work focuses on future changes in mean and extreme climate of the YRB for the near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and far-term (2081–2100) future, and assesses these with respect to the reference period (1986–2005) using the latest REgional MOdel (REMO) simulations, driven by three global climate models (GCMs) and assuming historical and future [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5] forcing scenarios, over the CORDEX East Asia domain at 0.22° horizontal resolution. The results show that REMO reproduces the historical mean climate state and selected extreme climate indices reasonably well, although some cold and wet biases exist. Increases in mean temperature are strongest for the far-term in winter, with an average increase of 5.6 °C under RCP 8.5. As expected, the future temperatures of the warmest day (TXx) and coldest night (TNn) increase and the number of frost days (FD) declines considerably. Changes to mean temperature and FD depend on elevation, which could be explained by the snow-albedo feedback. A substantial increase in precipitation (34%) occurs in winter under RCP 8.5 for the far-term. Interannual variability in precipitation is projected to increase, indicating a future climate with more extreme events compared to that of today. Future daily precipitation intensity and maximum 5-day precipitation would increase and the number of consecutive dry days would decline under RCP 8.5. The results highlight that pronounced warming at high altitudes and more intense rainfall could cause increased future flood risk in the YRB, if a high GHG emission pathway is realized.