The value of statistical forecasts in the UK association football betting market

In this paper, we evaluate the economic significance of statistical forecasts of UK Association Football match outcomes in relation to betting market prices. We present a detailed comparison of odds set by different bookmakers in relation to forecast model predictions, and analyse the potential for...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inInternational journal of forecasting Vol. 20; no. 4; pp. 697 - 711
Main Authors Dixon, Mark J., Pope, Peter F.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.10.2004
Elsevier
Elsevier Sequoia S.A
SeriesInternational Journal of Forecasting
Subjects
Economic models
Firm
Forecasting
Gambling
Market prices
Professional soccer
Score odd
Statistical forecast
Statistics
Studies
United Kingdom > UK
Score odd
Statistical forecast
Firm
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Summary:In this paper, we evaluate the economic significance of statistical forecasts of UK Association Football match outcomes in relation to betting market prices. We present a detailed comparison of odds set by different bookmakers in relation to forecast model predictions, and analyse the potential for arbitrage across firms. We also examine extreme odds biases. A detailed re-examination of match result odds and a new examination of correct score odds for the period 1993 to 1996 suggest that the market is inefficient.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
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ISSN:0169-2070
1872-8200
DOI:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.12.007