Prediction, assessment of the Rift Valley fever activity in East and Southern Africa 2006-2008 and possible vector control strategies

• Published in: The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene Vol. 83; no. 2 Suppl; pp. 43 - 51
• Main Authors: Anyamba, Assaf, Linthicum, Kenneth J, Small, Jennifer, Britch, Seth C, Pak, Edwin, de La Rocque, Stephane, Formenty, Pierre, Hightower, Allen W, Breiman, Robert F, Chretien, Jean-Paul, Tucker, Compton J, Schnabel, David, Sang, Rosemary, Haagsma, Karl, Latham, Mark, Lewandowski, Henry B, Magdi, Salih Osman, Mohamed, Mohamed Ally, Nguku, Patrick M, Reynes, Jean-Marc, Swanepoel, Robert
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 01.08.2010; The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
• Subjects: Aedes; Aedes - growth & development; Aedes - virology; Africa, Eastern; Africa, Eastern - epidemiology; Africa, Southern; Africa, Southern - epidemiology; Animals; Animals, Domestic; Animals, Domestic - virology; Climate; Culex; Culex - growth & development; Culex - virology; Disease Outbreaks; Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control; Forecasting; Humans; Insect Vectors; Insect Vectors - growth & development; Insect Vectors - virology; Life Sciences; Microbiology and Parasitology; Rain; Rift Valley Fever; Rift Valley Fever - epidemiology; Rift Valley Fever - prevention & control; Rift Valley Fever - veterinary; Risk Assessment; Satellite Communications; Temperature; Africa, Eastern; Africa, Southern
• ISSN: 0002-9637; 1476-1645; 1476-1645
• DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0289

Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall, and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2-4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning, and mitigation into the future.