HEALTH CYCLES AND HEALTH TRANSITIONS

We study the dynamics of poverty and health in a model of endogenous growth and rational health behavior. Population health depends on the prevalence of infectious diseases that can be avoided through costly prevention. The incentive to do so comes from the negative effects of ill health on the qual...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inMacroeconomic dynamics Vol. 20; no. 1; pp. 189 - 213
Main Authors Chakraborty, Shankha, Papageorgiou, Chris, Sebastián, Fidel Pérez
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published New York, USA Cambridge University Press 01.01.2016
Subjects
Disease prevention
Economic models
Economic theory
Epidemiology
Foreign aid
Health behavior
Illnesses
Incentives
Infant mortality
Infections
Infectious diseases
Low income groups
Macroeconomics
Poverty
Public health
Stagnation
Studies
South Africa
Cycles
Unconditional Transfers
Conditional Transfers
Mortality
Infectious Disease
Economic Epidemiology
Morbidity
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Summary:We study the dynamics of poverty and health in a model of endogenous growth and rational health behavior. Population health depends on the prevalence of infectious diseases that can be avoided through costly prevention. The incentive to do so comes from the negative effects of ill health on the quality and quantity of life. The model can generate a poverty trap where infectious diseases cycle between high and low prevalence. These cycles originate from the rationality of preventive behavior in contrast to the predator–prey dynamics of epidemiological models. We calibrate the model to reflect sub-Saharan Africa's recent economic recovery and analyze policy alternatives. Unconditional transfers are found to improve welfare relative to conditional health-based transfers: at low income levels, income growth (quality of life) is valued more than improvements to health (quantity of life).
ISSN:1365-1005
1469-8056
DOI:10.1017/S1365100514000297