Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 38; no. 18
• Main Authors: Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Bitz, C. M., Holland, M. M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC Blackwell Publishing Ltd 21.09.2011; American Geophysical Union; John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subjects: Arctic; Atmospheric sciences; Climate; Climate science; Cryosphere; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; Human; Ice; Initial conditions; Joining; Mathematical models; Meteorology; Oceans; predictability; Sea ice; Seasons; Summer; Arctic Ocean; PN, Arctic; trend-surface analysis; Initial condition; General circulation models; thickness; Summer; digital simulation; climate; lead; coupling; Predictability; sea ice; Polar region; Forcing; Pan; Triggering
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1029/2011GL048807

The recent sharp decline in Arctic sea ice has triggered an increase in the interest of Arctic sea ice predictability, not least driven by the potential of significant human industrial activity in the region. In this study we quantify how long Arctic sea ice predictability is dominated by dependence on its initial conditions versus dependence on its secular decline in a state‐of‐the‐art global circulation model (GCM) under a ‘perfect model’ assumption. We demonstrate initial‐value predictability of pan‐Arctic sea ice area is continuous for 1–2 years, after which predictability is intermittent in the 2–4 year range. Predictability of area at these longer lead times is associated with strong area‐thickness coupling in the summer season. Initial‐value predictability of pan‐Arctic sea ice volume is significant continuously for 3–4 years, after which time predictability from secular trends dominates. Thus we conclude predictability of Arctic sea ice beyond 3 years is dominated by climate forcing rather than initial conditions. Additionally, we find that forecast of summer conditions are equally good from the previous September or January initial conditions. Key Points Forced predictability overtakes initial value predictability after 3 years Season of forecast initialization time is irrelevant beyond 1st year Area and volume anomalies couple only seasonally