The Chinese Carbon-Neutral Goal: Challenges and Prospects

• Published in: Advances in atmospheric sciences Vol. 39; no. 8; pp. 1229 - 1238
• Main Authors: Zeng, Ning, Jiang, Kejun, Han, Pengfei, Hausfather, Zeke, Cao, Junji, Kirk-Davidoff, Daniel, Ali, Shaukat, Zhou, Sheng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Heidelberg Science Press 01.08.2022; Springer Nature B.V; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science,and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center,University of Maryland,College Park 20742,Maryland,USA; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China%Energy Research Institute,National Development and Reform Commission,Beijing 100045,China%Carbon Neutrality Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China%Breakthrough Institute,Oakland 94612,California,USA%Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China%Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science,and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center,University of Maryland,College Park 20742,Maryland,USA%Global Change Impact Study Centre,Ministry of Climate Change,Islamabad 45250,Pakistan%Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China
• Subjects: Alternative energy sources; Anthropogenic factors; Atmospheric Sciences; Carbon; Carbon emissions; Carbon neutrality; Carbon Neutrality: Important Roles of Renewable Energies; Carbon Sinks; COVID-19; Decarbonization; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Economic reform; Economics; Emissions; Energy; Energy resources; Energy sources; Fossil fuels; Gases; Geophysics/Geodesy; Globalization; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Human influences; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; International cooperation; Meteorology; NETs; non-CO2 GHGs; Pandemics; Perspectives; Socioeconomic aspects; Solar energy; China; distributed energy system; 二氧化碳减排; carbon neutral; energy system transformation; model projections; carbon dioxide reductions; 能源系统转型; 模型预测; 碳中和; 分布式能源系统
• ISSN: 0256-1530; 1861-9533
• DOI: 10.1007/s00376-021-1313-6

On 22 September 2020, within the backdrop of the COVID-19 global pandemic, China announced its climate goal for peak carbon emissions before 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality before 2060. This carbon-neutral goal is generally considered to cover all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The planning effort is now in full swing in China, but the pathway to decarbonization is unclear. The needed transition towards non-fossil fuel energy and its impact on China and the world may be more profound than its reform and development over the past 40 years, but the challenges are enormous. Analysis of four representative scenarios shows significant differences in achieving the carbon-neutral goal, particularly the contribution of non-fossil fuel energy sources. The high target values for nuclear, wind, and bioenergy have approached their corresponding resource limitations, with solar energy being the exception, suggesting solar's critical role. We also found that the near-term policies that allow for a gradual transition, followed by more drastic changes after 2030, can eventually reach the carbon-neutral goal and lead to less of a reduction in cumulative emissions, thus inconsistent with the IPCC 1.5°C scenario. The challenges and prospects are discussed in the historical context of China's socio-economic reform, globalization, international collaboration, and development.