Prediction of major depressive disorder onset in college students

• Published in: Depression and anxiety Vol. 36; no. 4; pp. 294 - 304
• Main Authors: Ebert, David D., Buntrock, Claudia, Mortier, Philippe, Auerbach, Randy, Weisel, Kiona K., Kessler, Ronald C., Cuijpers, Pim, Green, Jennifer G., Kiekens, Glenn, Nock, Matthew K., Demyttenaere, Koen, Bruffaerts, Ronny
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.04.2019; John Wiley and Sons Inc
• Subjects: Children; College students; depression; Depressive Disorder, Major - diagnosis; Depressive Disorder, Major - epidemiology; Depressive Disorder, Major - prevention & control; Depressive Disorder, Major - psychology; Epidemiology; Female; health services; Humans; Incidence; Male; Mass Screening; Mental depression; mood disorders; Prospective Studies; Psychopathology; Risk Factors; Students - psychology; Students - statistics & numerical data; Suicidal Ideation; Suicide; suicide/self‐harm; Suicides & suicide attempts; Teenagers; Trauma; Universities; Young Adult; suicide/self-harm; epidemiology; depression; health services; mood disorders
• ISSN: 1091-4269; 1520-6394; 1520-6394
• DOI: 10.1002/da.22867

Background Major depressive disorder (MDD) in college students is associated with substantial burden. Aims To assess 1‐year incidence of MDD among incoming freshmen and predictors of MDD‐incidence in a representative sample of students. Method Prospective cohort study of first‐year college students (baseline: n = 2,519, 1‐year follow‐up: n = 958) Results The incidence of MDD within the first year of college was 6.9% (SE = 0.8). The most important individual‐level predictors of onset were prior suicide plans and/or attempts (OR = 9.5). The strongest population‐level baseline predictors were history of childhood–adolescent trauma, stressful experience in the past 12 months, parental psychopathology, and other 12‐month mental disorder. Multivariate cross‐validated prediction (cross‐validated AUC = 0.73) suggest that 36.1% of incident MDD cases in a replication sample would occur among the 10% of students at highest predicted risk (24.5% predicted incidence in this highest‐risk subgroup). Conclusions Screening at college entrance is a promising strategy to identify students at risk of MDD onset, which may improve the development and deployment of targeted preventive interventions.