Adaptive behaviour during epidemics: a social risk appraisal approach to modelling dynamics

• Published in: Journal of the Royal Society interface Vol. 22; no. 222; p. 20240363
• Main Authors: O’Gara, David, Kasman, Matt, Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent, Hammond, Ross A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England The Royal Society 01.01.2025
• Subjects: Communicable Diseases - epidemiology; Epidemics; Humans; Life Sciences–Mathematics interface; Models, Biological; Social Behavior; contagion; behavioural response; computational epidemiology
• ISSN: 1742-5662; 1742-5689; 1742-5662
• DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2024.0363

The interaction of infectious diseases and behavioural responses to them has been the subject of widespread study. However, limited attention has been given to how broader social context shapes behavioural response. In this work, we propose a novel framework which combines two well-studied dynamic processes into a ‘social risk appraisal’ mechanism. Our proposed framework has both theoretical and empirical support, occupying an important middle ground in the interacting contagions literature. Results indicate that a risk appraisal framework can express a wide range of epidemic outcomes, driven by simple interaction rules. This framework has implications for designing containment strategies in disease outbreaks, as well as equity considerations. Finally, the risk appraisal approach is well-posed to engage with a broad set of literature in epidemic management, decision-making and the adoption of social behaviours.