The economic feasibility of green hydrogen and fuel cell electric vehicles for road transport in China

• Published in: Energy policy Vol. 160; p. 112703
• Main Authors: Li, Yanfei, Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.01.2022; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Alternative fuel vehicles; Central government; China; Commercial vehicles; Competition; Competitiveness; Cost analysis; Costs; Economic models; Electric vehicles; Emissions; Energy; Energy policy; Energy storage; Feasibility; Feasibility studies; Fossil fuels; Fuel cells; Fuel technology; Green hydrogen; Hydrogen; Hydrogen-based energy; Justification; Ownership; Powertrain; Renewable energy; Renewable resources; Road transport; Road transportation; Storage; Supply; Supply chains; Trade; Transportation; Transportation industry; Vehicles; China; Q21; Renewable energy; Q48; Hydrogen; China; R48; Road transport; Q42
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112703

In September 2020, the Chinese central government announced a new policy to develop hydrogen energy and fuel cell applications. It emphasized fuel cell commercial vehicles rather than passenger vehicles. Such an emphasis is drastically different from the hydrogen and fuel cell strategies of other leading economies. This study aims at providing insights into the justification behind it. It develops quantitative models to conduct economic assessments of the feasibility of hydrogen energy produced from renewable energy and subsequently applied in the road transport sector in China. A well-to-wheel model is developed to estimate the carbon emissions of the hydrogen supply chain as well as that of the fuel cell electric vehicles. In the meantime, a levelised cost of hydrogen model is adopted to analyze the cost of hydrogen as storage for renewable energy. These are followed by a total cost of ownership model applied to assess the cost of owning and driving fuel cell electric vehicle, fueled by the hydrogen produced from renewables, compared to alternative vehicle powertrains, especially those fossil fuel-based. On such a basis, the relation between energy policies and the competitiveness of hydrogen produced from renewable energy and the fuel cell electric vehicle is discussed. •Green hydrogen in China could be competitive against grey hydrogen in terms of cost.•Fuel cell passenger vehicles are already competitive given high subsidy.•Fuel cell buses and trucks are not competitive yet even with subsidies.•Capital cost of fuel cell vehicles is a more important barrier than hydrogen cost.•Policies to prioritize the support for R&D, supply chain, and new market mechanisms.