An economic “Kessler Syndrome”: A dynamic model of earth orbit debris

We construct a dynamic model of orbital debris that predicts an “economic Kessler Syndrome”, where orbital debris renders orbits economically unprofitable, precedes a “physical Kessler Syndrome”. Our model generalizes to any orbit subject to debris accretions or decrements. •Orbital debris may rende...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inEconomics letters Vol. 166; pp. 79 - 82
Main Authors Adilov, Nodir, Alexander, Peter J., Cunningham, Brendan M.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.05.2018
Elsevier Science Ltd
Subjects
dynamic models
Economic Kessler Syndrome
economics
Orbital debris
Satellites
Space debris
Studies
Orbital debris
Satellites
Economic Kessler Syndrome
L1
L9
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Summary:We construct a dynamic model of orbital debris that predicts an “economic Kessler Syndrome”, where orbital debris renders orbits economically unprofitable, precedes a “physical Kessler Syndrome”. Our model generalizes to any orbit subject to debris accretions or decrements. •Orbital debris may render orbits economically unprofitable.•Economic Kessler Syndrome proceeds physical Kessler Syndrome.•Satellite launch rates respond non-monotonically to debris levels.•Quantity of debris may increase even in the absence of new satellite launches.•The model generalizes to any orbit subject to debris accretions or decrements.
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ISSN:0165-1765
1873-7374
DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2018.02.025