Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes

This study addresses the greatest concern facing the large-scale integration of wind, water, and solar (WWS) into a power grid: the high cost of avoiding load loss caused by WWS variability and uncertainty. It uses a new grid integrationmodel and finds low-cost, no-load-loss, nonunique solutions to...

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Published inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 112; no. 49; pp. 15060 - 15065
Main Authors Jacobson, Mark Z., Delucchi, Mark A., Cameron, Mary A., Frew, Bethany A.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States National Academy of Sciences 08.12.2015
National Acad Sciences
Subjects
Fossil fuels
Kinetics
Physical Sciences
Time series
Turbines
United States > US
renewable energy
energy cost
grid stability
energy security
climate change
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Summary:This study addresses the greatest concern facing the large-scale integration of wind, water, and solar (WWS) into a power grid: the high cost of avoiding load loss caused by WWS variability and uncertainty. It uses a new grid integrationmodel and finds low-cost, no-load-loss, nonunique solutions to this problem on electrification of all US energy sectors (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) while accounting for wind and solar time series data from a 3D global weather model that simulates extreme events and competition among wind turbines for available kinetic energy. Solutions are obtained by prioritizing storage for heat (in soil and water); cold (in ice and water); and electricity (in phase-change materials, pumped hydro, hydropower, and hydrogen), and using demand response. No natural gas, biofuels, nuclear power, or stationary batteries are needed. The resulting 2050–2055 US electricity social cost for a full system is much less than for fossil fuels. These results hold for many conditions, suggesting that low-cost, reliable 100% WWS systems should work many places worldwide.
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Author contributions: M.Z.J. designed research; M.Z.J. and M.A.D. performed research; M.Z.J., M.A.D., M.A.C., and B.A.F. contributed analytic tools; M.Z.J., M.A.D., and M.A.C. analyzed data; and M.Z.J., M.A.D., M.A.C., and B.A.F. wrote the paper.
Edited by Stephen Polasky, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, and approved November 2, 2015 (received for review May 26, 2015)
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1510028112