The prediction of sagittal chin point relapse following two-jaw surgery using machine learning

• Published in: Scientific reports Vol. 13; no. 1; p. 17005
• Main Authors: Kim, Young Ho, Kim, Inhwan, Kim, Yoon-Ji, Kim, Minji, Cho, Jin-Hyoung, Hong, Mihee, Kang, Kyung-Hwa, Lim, Sung-Hoon, Kim, Su-Jung, Kim, Namkug, Shin, Jeong Won, Sung, Sang-Jin, Baek, Seung-Hak, Chae, Hwa Sung
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Nature Publishing Group 09.10.2023; Nature Publishing Group UK; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: Cephalometry; Chin - surgery; Female; Follow-Up Studies; Humans; Jaw; Learning algorithms; Machine learning; Male; Malocclusion, Angle Class III - surgery; Mandible - diagnostic imaging; Mandible - surgery; Maxilla - surgery; Orthognathic Surgical Procedures; Recurrence; Retrospective Studies; Risk factors; Surgery
• ISSN: 2045-2322; 2045-2322
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-44207-2

The study aimed to identify critical factors associated with the surgical stability of pogonion (Pog) by applying machine learning (ML) to predict relapse following two-jaw orthognathic surgery (2 J-OGJ). The sample set comprised 227 patients (110 males and 117 females, 207 training and 20 test sets). Using lateral cephalograms taken at the initial evaluation (T0), pretreatment (T1), after (T2) 2 J-OGS, and post treatment (T3), 55 linear and angular skeletal and dental surgical movements (T2-T1) were measured. Six ML modes were utilized, including classification and regression trees (CART), conditional inference tree (CTREE), and random forest (RF). The training samples were classified into three groups; highly significant (HS) (≥ 4), significant (S) (≥ 2 and < 4), and insignificant (N), depending on Pog relapse. RF indicated that the most important variable that affected relapse rank prediction was ramus inclination (RI), CTREE and CART revealed that a clockwise rotation of more than 3.7 and 1.8 degrees of RI was a risk factor for HS and S groups, respectively. RF, CTREE, and CART were practical tools for predicting surgical stability. More than 1.8 degrees of CW rotation of the ramus during surgery would lead to significant Pog relapse.