What is an emerging technology?

• Published in: Research policy Vol. 44; no. 10; pp. 1827 - 1843
• Main Authors: Rotolo, Daniele, Hicks, Diana, Martin, Ben R.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.12.2015; Elsevier Sequoia S.A
• Subjects: Attributes of emergence; Conceptualisation; Definition; Definitions; Detection and analysis; Emerging technologies; Framework; Indicators; Information technology; Operationalisation; Policy making; Science and Technology Studies (STS); Scientometrics; Studies; Technological change; Conceptualisation; Scientometrics; Operationalisation; Emerging technologies; Detection and analysis; Definition; Science and Technology Studies (STS); Attributes of emergence; Indicators; Framework
• ISSN: 0048-7333; 1873-7625
• DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2015.06.006

•Emerging technologies are defined by five attributes: radical novelty, fast growth, coherence, prominent impact, and uncertainty and ambiguity.•Scientometric techniques can operationalise growth, radical novelty, and coherence.•Publication and patent data are widely used for the operationalisation of emerging technologies.•Scientometrics has focused mainly on the detection of what is emerging, rather than on characterising the potential of what is detected to be emerging.•Science and Technology Studies offer insights useful in operationalising prominent impact as well as uncertainty and ambiguity. There is considerable and growing interest in the emergence of novel technologies, especially from the policy-making perspective. Yet, as an area of study, emerging technologies lack key foundational elements, namely a consensus on what classifies a technology as ‘emergent’ and strong research designs that operationalise central theoretical concepts. The present paper aims to fill this gap by developing a definition of ‘emerging technologies’ and linking this conceptual effort with the development of a framework for the operationalisation of technological emergence. The definition is developed by combining a basic understanding of the term and in particular the concept of ‘emergence’ with a review of key innovation studies dealing with definitional issues of technological emergence. The resulting definition identifies five attributes that feature in the emergence of novel technologies. These are: (i) radical novelty, (ii) relatively fast growth, (iii) coherence, (iv) prominent impact, and (v) uncertainty and ambiguity. The framework for operationalising emerging technologies is then elaborated on the basis of the proposed attributes. To do so, we identify and review major empirical approaches (mainly in, although not limited to, the scientometric domain) for the detection and study of emerging technologies (these include indicators and trend analysis, citation analysis, co-word analysis, overlay mapping, and combinations thereof) and elaborate on how these can be used to operationalise the different attributes of emergence.