A Markov regime-switching model for the semiconductor industry cycles

Because of the huge fluctuation in the semiconductor business, it has been a challenging work for the industry researchers to predict the turning points of the semiconductor industry cycles. To catch the cyclical behavior of the semiconductor business, we propose a Markov Regime-Switching model with...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published inEconomic modelling Vol. 23; no. 4; pp. 569 - 578
Main Authors Liu, Wen-Hsien, Chyi, Yih-Luan
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.07.2006
Elsevier
Elsevier Science Ltd
SeriesEconomic Modelling
Subjects
Cyclical analysis
Economic forecasts
Forecasts
GNP
Gross National Product
Industrial economics
Markov analysis
Markov regime-switching model
Markovian processes
Regime shifts
Semiconductor industry cycles
Semiconductors
Studies
Turning-point forecast
C53
L16
Markov regime-switching model
Turning-point forecast
L63
Semiconductor industry cycles
Regime shifts
Online AccessGet full text

Cover

More Information
Summary:Because of the huge fluctuation in the semiconductor business, it has been a challenging work for the industry researchers to predict the turning points of the semiconductor industry cycles. To catch the cyclical behavior of the semiconductor business, we propose a Markov Regime-Switching model with two regimes representing expansion and contraction. The simple nonlinear, two states, regime-switching model shows a successful in-sample prediction on the contraction of semiconductor industry sales during the period of 1990:01–2003:08.
Bibliography:SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-1
content type line 14
ObjectType-Article-2
content type line 23
ISSN:0264-9993
1873-6122
DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2006.02.007