Cheap talk and credibility: The consequences of confidence and accuracy on advisor credibility and persuasiveness

• Published in: Organizational behavior and human decision processes Vol. 121; no. 2; pp. 246 - 255
• Main Authors: Sah, Sunita, Moore, Don A., MacCoun, Robert J.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Elsevier Inc 01.07.2013; Elsevier; Elsevier Science Publishing Company, Inc
• Subjects: Accuracy; Advisers; Advisors; Calibration; Confidence; Credibility; Feedback; Feedback (Response); Heuristic; Heuristics; Human behaviour; Hypotheses; Hypothesis; Influence; Influences; Judgement; Judgment; Organization theory; Organizational behavior; Overconfidence; Perception; Personality; Professional workers; Self Esteem; Studies; Accuracy; Confidence; Advisors; Influence; Calibration; Credibility; Judgment
• ISSN: 0749-5978; 1095-9920
• DOI: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2013.02.001

► We reconcile theories of advisor influence: confidence and calibration hypotheses. ► We explore boundaries of the calibration hypothesis. ► Feedback moderates the extent to which participants use the confidence heuristic. ► When feedback is unavailable or costly, people revert to the confidence heuristic. ► Advice delivered with confidence is less likely to be checked for accuracy. Is it possible to increase one’s influence simply by behaving more confidently? Prior research presents two competing hypotheses: (1) the confidence heuristic holds that more confidence increases credibility, and (2) the calibration hypothesis asserts that overconfidence will backfire when others find out. Study 1 reveals that, consistent with the calibration hypothesis, while accurate advisors benefit from displaying confidence, confident but inaccurate advisors receive low credibility ratings. However, Study 2 shows that when feedback on advisor accuracy is unavailable or costly, confident advisors hold sway regardless of accuracy. People also made less effort to determine the accuracy of confident advisors; interest in buying advisor performance data decreased as the advisor’s confidence went up. These results add to our understanding of how advisor confidence, accuracy, and calibration influence others.