Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruption

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 108; no. 38; pp. 15710 - 15715
• Main Authors: Schmidt, Anja, Ostro, Bart, Carslaw, Kenneth S, Wilson, Marjorie, Thordarson, Thorvaldur, Mann, Graham W, Simmons, Adrian J
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States National Academy of Sciences 20.09.2011; National Acad Sciences
• Subjects: Aerosols; Air flow; Air Pollutants - analysis; Air pollution; Air Pollution - adverse effects; air quality; Algorithms; Biological Sciences; confidence interval; Death; Environmental Health - methods; Environmental Health - standards; Environmental Monitoring - methods; Environmental Monitoring - standards; Epidemiological Monitoring; epidemiological studies; Eruptions; Europe - epidemiology; Forecasting; Geography; Health benefits; Health hazards; History, 18th Century; Humans; Iceland - epidemiology; Meteorology; Mortality; Mortality - trends; Particle Size; Particulate matter; Particulate Matter - analysis; Particulates; Physical Sciences; Pollution effects; Risk Assessment - methods; Risk Assessment - standards; Risk Factors; Seasonal variations; Sulfur dioxide; Volcanic Eruptions - adverse effects; Volcanic Eruptions - history; Volcanoes; World Health Organization; Iceland; Europe; ANE, Atlantic, Iceland
• ISSN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1108569108

Historical records show that the A.D. 1783–1784 Laki eruption in Iceland caused severe environmental stress and posed a health hazard far beyond the borders of Iceland. Given the reasonable likelihood of such an event recurring, it is important to assess the scale on which a future eruption could impact society. We quantify the potential health effects caused by an increase in air pollution during a future Laki-style eruption using a global aerosol model together with concentration-response functions derived from current epidemiological studies. The concentration of particulate matter with diameters smaller than 2.5 µm is predicted to double across central, western, and northern Europe during the first 3 mo of the eruption. Over land areas of Europe, the current World Health Organization 24-h air quality guideline for particulate matter with diameters smaller than 2.5 µm is exceeded an additional 36 d on average over the course of the eruption. Based on the changes in particulate air pollution, we estimate that approximately 142,000 additional cardiopulmonary fatalities (with a 95% confidence interval of 52,000–228,000) could occur in Europe. In terms of air pollution, such a volcanic eruption would therefore be a severe health hazard, increasing excess mortality in Europe on a scale that likely exceeds excess mortality due to seasonal influenza.