East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century： Results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Forty-two climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 5 were first evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the present climatology of the East Asian winter (December–February) and summer (June–August) monsoons. The East Asian winter and summer monso...

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Published inChinese science bulletin Vol. 58; no. 12; pp. 1427 - 1435
Main Authors Jiang, DaBang, Tian, ZhiPing
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Berlin/Heidelberg Springer-Verlag 01.04.2013
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Subjects
atmospheric circulation
Chemistry/Food Science
climate models
Earth Sciences
Engineering
Humanities and Social Sciences
Life Sciences
monsoon season
multidisciplinary
Physics
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
sea level
summer
winter
东亚冬季风
东北亚地区
北太平洋
夏季风
季风变化
气候模型
海平面气压
阿留申低压
South China Sea
East Asia
East Asian monsoon
global warming
projection
climate models
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Summary:Forty-two climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 5 were first evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the present climatology of the East Asian winter (December–February) and summer (June–August) monsoons. The East Asian winter and summer monsoon changes over the 21st century were then projected using the results of 31 and 29 reliable climate models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) mid-range A1B scenario or the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) mid-low-range RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. Results showed that the East Asian winter monsoon changes little over time as a whole relative to the reference period 1980–1999. Regionally, it weakens (strengthens) north (south) of about 25°N in East Asia, which results from atmospheric circulation changes over the western North Pacific and Northeast Asia owing to the weakening and northward shift of the Aleutian Low, and from decreased northwest-southeast thermal and sea level pressure differences across Northeast Asia. In summer, monsoon strengthens slightly in East China over the 21st century as a consequence of an increased land-sea thermal contrast between the East Asian continent and the adjacent western North Pacific and South China Sea.
Bibliography:global warming; East Asian monsoon; climate models; projection
11-1785/N
Forty-two climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 5 were first evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the present climatology of the East Asian winter （December-February） and summer （June- August） monsoons. The East Asian winter and summer monsoon changes over the 21st century were then projected using the results of 31 and 29 reliable climate models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） mid-range A1B scenario or the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） mid-low-range RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. Results showed that the East Asian winter monsoon changes little over time as a whole relative to the reference period 1980-1999. Regionally, it weakens （strengthens） north （south） of about 25°N in East Asia, which results from atmospheric circulation changes over the western North Pacific and Northeast Asia owing to the weakening and northward shift of the Aleutian Low, and from decreased northwest-southeast thermal and sea level pressure differences across Northeast Asia. In summer, monsoon strengthens slightly in East China over the 21 st century as a consequence of an increased land-sea thermal contrast between the East Asian continent and the adjacent western North Pacific and South China Sea.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11434-012-5533-0
ISSN:1001-6538
1861-9541
DOI:10.1007/s11434-012-5533-0