A simple scoring model for advanced colorectal neoplasm in asymptomatic subjects aged 40–49 years

• Published in: BMC gastroenterology Vol. 17; no. 1; p. 7
• Main Authors: Park, Yoo Mi, Kim, Hee Sun, Park, Jae Jun, Baik, Su Jung, Youn, Young Hoon, Kim, Jie-Hyun, Park, Hyojin
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England BioMed Central Ltd 09.01.2017; BioMed Central
• Subjects: Adult; Age Factors; Area Under Curve; Asymptomatic Diseases; Colonoscopy; Colorectal cancer; Colorectal Neoplasms - diagnosis; Colorectal Neoplasms - epidemiology; Colorectal Neoplasms - etiology; Decision Support Techniques; Early Detection of Cancer - methods; Female; Gastroenterology; Health aspects; Health screening; Humans; Logistic Models; Male; Methods; Middle Aged; Middle aged persons; Predictive Value of Tests; Prevalence; Retrospective Studies; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Sensitivity and Specificity; Sex Factors; Screening; Colorectal neoplasm; Adenoma; Colonoscopy; Risk assessment
• ISSN: 1471-230X; 1471-230X
• DOI: 10.1186/s12876-016-0562-9

Limited data are available for advanced colorectal neoplasm in asymptomatic individuals aged 40-49 years. We aimed to identify risk factors and develop a simple prediction model for advanced colorectal neoplasm in these persons. Clinical data were collected on 2781 asymptomatic subjects aged 40-49 years who underwent colonoscopy for routine health examination. Subjects were randomly allocated to a development or validation set. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine predictors of advanced colorectal neoplasm. The prevalence of overall and advanced colorectal neoplasm was 20.2 and 2.5% respectively. Older age (45-49 years), male sex, positive serology of Helicobacter pylori, and high triglyceride and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) levels were independently associated with an increased risk of advanced colorectal neoplasm. BMI (body mass index) was not significant in multivariable analysis. We developed a simple scoring model for advanced colorectal neoplasm (range 0-9). A cutoff of ≥4 defined 43% of subjects as high risk for advanced colorectal neoplasm (sensitivity, 79%; specificity, 58%; area under the receiver operating curve = 0.72) in the validation datasets. Older age (45-49 years), male sex, positive serology of H. pylori, high triglyceride level, and low HDL level were identified as independent risk factors for advanced colorectal neoplasm.