Systems Analysis of Robust Strategic Decisions to Plan Secure Food, Energy, and Water Provision Based on the Stochastic Globiom Model

• Published in: Cybernetics and systems analysis Vol. 51; no. 1; pp. 125 - 133
• Main Authors: Ermolieva, T. Yu, Ermoliev, Yu. M., Havlik, P., Mosnier, A., Leclere, D., Kraksner, F., Khabarov, N., Obersteiner, M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Boston Springer US 01.01.2015; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Agriculture; Animal husbandry; Artificial Intelligence; Biodiesel fuels; Bioenergetics; Biofuels; Biomass energy; Biosphere; Breeding of animals; Control; Cooperation; Corn; Cybernetics; Decision making; Decisions; Deforestation; Diversification; Elasticity of demand; Energy; Equilibrium; Food; Food supply; Foods; Forestry; Irrigation; Land use; Linear programming; Management; Mathematical analysis; Mathematics; Mathematics and Statistics; Optimization; Planning; Prices; Processor Architectures; Productivity; Risk management; Robustness; Software Engineering/Programming and Operating Systems; Stochastic models; Stochasticity; Strategic planning; Studies; Systems analysis; Systems Theory; Water supply; secure food, energy, water provision; risk measures VaR and CVaR; GLOBIOM; robust strategic and operative decisions; stochastic optimization; global diversification of systemic risks
• ISSN: 1060-0396; 1573-8337
• DOI: 10.1007/s10559-015-9704-2

The paper focuses on the development of adequate approaches to the systems analysis of geographically-explicit robust decisions for long-term consistent management of interdependent land use systems. We introduce a stochastic partial equilibrium Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) enabling to analyze secure food, energy, and water provision accounting for interdependencies between countries and global diversification of systemic risks.