Plant trait-based models identify direct and indirect effects of climate change on bundles of grassland ecosystem services

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 111; no. 38; pp. 13751 - 13756
• Main Authors: Lamarque, Pénélope, Lavorel, Sandra, Mouchet, Maud, Quétier, Fabien
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States National Academy of Sciences 23.09.2014; National Acad Sciences
• Subjects: Biological Sciences; Climate Change; Climate models; Drought; Ecosystem services; Ecosystems; Farmers; Flowers & plants; Grasses; Grassland; Grasslands; Land management; Land use; Landscapes; Models, Biological; Plant Development - physiology; Plants; Plants - genetics; Quantitative Trait, Heritable; Tradeoffs; trade-offs; plant functional traits; global change; mountain agriculture
• ISSN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1216051111

Significance The sustainable management of the supply of ecosystem services (ESs) in a context of global change is of major importance to sustain human livelihoods. Doing sustainable management requires us to understand and to quantify the effects and mechanisms of changes in driving variables on multiple ESs. However, few studies to date have analyzed ES scenarios, and even fewer have adopted a mechanistic approach. This study presents a unique approach to examine not only the direct effects of climate on multiple ESs, but also its indirect effects through its consequences for land management and for plant functional traits. The framework was tested in an alpine grassland system using ES models based on land use, plant functional traits, and soil data. Land use and climate change are primary causes of changes in the supply of ecosystem services (ESs). Although the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services are well documented, the cascading impacts of climate change on ESs through changes in land use are largely overlooked. We present a trait-based framework based on an empirical model to elucidate how climate change affects tradeoffs among ESs. Using alternative scenarios for mountain grasslands, we predicted how direct effects of climate change on ecosystems and indirect effects through farmers’ adaptations are likely to affect ES bundles through changes in plant functional properties. ES supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, and ES bundles remained stable across scenarios. These responses largely reflected the restricted extent of management change in this constrained system, which was incorporated when scaling up plot level climate and management effects on ecosystem properties to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changed fertility determined interactions and tradeoffs among ESs.