Predicted as observed? How to identify empirically adequate theoretical constructs

The identification of an empirically adequate theoretical construct requires determining whether a theoretically predicted effect is sufficiently similar to an observed effect. To this end, we propose a simple similarity measure, describe its application in different research designs, and use comput...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inFrontiers in psychology Vol. 13; p. 980261
Main Authors Witte, Erich H, Stanciu, Adrian, Zenker, Frank
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Switzerland Frontiers Media S.A 01.12.2022
Subjects
crowdsourcing hypothesis test
dissonance theory
empirical adequacy
meta-analysis
Paul Meehl
personality research
Psychology
precognition
theory construction
personality research
crowdsourcing hypothesis test
meta-analysis
Paul Meehl
empirical adequacy
dissonance theory
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Summary:The identification of an empirically adequate theoretical construct requires determining whether a theoretically predicted effect is sufficiently similar to an observed effect. To this end, we propose a simple similarity measure, describe its application in different research designs, and use computer simulations to estimate the necessary sample size for a given observed effect. As our main example, we apply this measure to recent meta-analytical research on precognition. Results suggest that the evidential basis is too weak for a predicted precognition effect of = 0.20 to be considered empirically adequate. As additional examples, we apply this measure to object-level experimental data from dissonance theory and a recent crowdsourcing hypothesis test, as well as to meta-analytical data on the correlation of personality traits and life outcomes.
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This article was submitted to Theoretical and Philosophical Psychology, a section of the journal Frontiers in Psychology
Reviewed by: Jan Ketil Arnulf, BI Norwegian Business School, Norway; Jean-Marie C. Chevalier, Université Paris-Est Créteil Val de Marne, France
Frank Zenker https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7173-7964
ORCID: Erich H. Witte https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9446-3211
Adrian Stanciu https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8149-7829
Edited by: Luca Tummolini, National Research Council, Italy
ISSN:1664-1078
1664-1078
DOI:10.3389/fpsyg.2022.980261