Estimating the effects of temperature on transmission of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 15; no. 1; p. 3230
• Main Authors: Suh, Eunho, Stopard, Isaac J., Lambert, Ben, Waite, Jessica L., Dennington, Nina L., Churcher, Thomas S., Thomas, Matthew B.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 22.04.2024; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 631/158/1469; 631/326/417/2549; 692/699/255/1629; 692/700/478/174; Anopheles gambiae; Aquatic insects; Climate change; Developmental stages; Disease transmission; Global warming; Humanities and Social Sciences; Malaria; Mosquitoes; multidisciplinary; Parasites; Plasmodium falciparum; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Temperature dependence; Temperature effects; Vector-borne diseases; Kenya
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47265-w

Despite concern that climate change could increase the human risk to malaria in certain areas, the temperature dependency of malaria transmission is poorly characterized. Here, we use a mechanistic model fitted to experimental data to describe how Plasmodium falciparum infection of the African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae , is modulated by temperature, including its influences on parasite establishment, conversion efficiency through parasite developmental stages, parasite development rate, and overall vector competence. We use these data, together with estimates of the survival of infected blood-fed mosquitoes, to explore the theoretical influence of temperature on transmission in four locations in Kenya, considering recent conditions and future climate change. Results provide insights into factors limiting transmission in cooler environments and indicate that increases in malaria transmission due to climate warming in areas like the Kenyan Highlands, might be less than previously predicted. Malaria transmission is affected by temperature but this relationship is not well characterised. Here, the authors experimentally determine the effect of temperature on parasite development in the mosquito and model how it impacts malaria transmission in Kenya under current and future climate scenarios.