Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model

• Published in: Journal of environmental radioactivity Vol. 83; no. 3; pp. 383 - 397
• Main Authors: Cox, G., Beresford, N.A., Alvarez-Farizo, B., Oughton, D., Kis, Z., Eged, K., Thørring, H., Hunt, J., Wright, S., Barnett, C.L., Gil, J.M., Howard, B.J., Crout, N.M.J.
• Format: Journal Article Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 2005; Elsevier
• Subjects: Agriculture; Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions; Air. Soil. Water. Waste. Feeding; Animal Feed; Animals; Biological and medical sciences; Cost-Benefit Analysis; Countermeasures; Decontamination - methods; Environment. Living conditions; Ferrocyanides - administration & dosage; Fertilizers; Food Chain; Food Contamination, Radioactive - prevention & control; Food industries; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects; Humans; Medical sciences; Models, Biological; Optimisation; Policy Making; Pollution and sludges; Public health. Hygiene; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine; Radiation Dosage; Radiation Protection; Restoration; Safety Management - economics; Safety Management - organization & administration; Safety Management - trends; Soil and water pollution; Soil science; Time Factors; United Kingdom; England; United Kingdom; Great Britain; Europe; British Isles, England, Cumbria; Model; Countermeasures; Restoration; Optimisation; Radioactive pollution; Pollution control; Countermeasure; Identification; Modeling; Nuclear accident; Optimal strategy; Decontamination; Nuclear power plant; Geographic information system; Simulation model; agri-food chains; Post-accidental management; Public health; Scenario (modeling)
• ISSN: 0265-931X; 1879-1700
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2004.05.021

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7 × 10 14, 1.2 × 10 13, 2.8 × 10 10 and 5.3 × 10 9 Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately £160 million. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented.