Modeling complexity: Using dynamic simulation to link regression and case studies

The success or failure of programs typically depends on how numerous variables interact over time. Individuals adjust their strategies continuously on the basis of prior events. Unintended consequences abound. And the very meaning of success or failure may change over time. Yet the studies that comm...

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Published inJournal of policy analysis and management Vol. 4; no. 2; pp. 196 - 216
Main Authors McCaffrey, David P., Andersen, David F., McCol, Paul, Kim, Doa Hoon
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published New York Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company 1985
John Wiley & Sons, Inc
Wiley
Subjects
Accident rates
Case study
Chemicals industries
Employment
Industrial safety
Inspection reports
Modeling
Occupational accidents
Program/Programs/Programmer/ Programmers
Public policy
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
SCIENTIFIC MODELS
Simulate/Simulated/Simulation/ Simulator
Simulation and games
Simulations
Steel industry
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Summary:The success or failure of programs typically depends on how numerous variables interact over time. Individuals adjust their strategies continuously on the basis of prior events. Unintended consequences abound. And the very meaning of success or failure may change over time. Yet the studies that command the most influence in the policy community are typically based on multiple regression, a technique whose capacity to capture these complexities is sharply limited. Accordingly, findings based on regression studies and findings based on the study of individual cases commonly conflict. Dynamic simulation modeling can serve as a methodological bridge between case studies and regression-based studies of policy systems. The results of some early experiments along these lines indicate how the bridge can be fashioned.
Bibliography:The comments of Fred Thompson, Sue Faerman, Roman Hedges, Irene Lurie, and Richard Nunez are gratefully acknowledged.
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ArticleID:PAM4050040203
The Dean of the Graduate School of Public Affairs at the Rockefeller College, SUNY at Albany.
David P. McCaffrey is an assistant professor in the Graduate School of Public Affairs, Nelson A. Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, SUNY at Albany.
Paul McCol is a doctoral student in the School of Criminal Justice at the Rockefeller College.
Doa Hoon Kim is a doctoral student in the Graduate School of Public Affairs, the Rockefeller College.
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ISSN:0276-8739
1520-6688
DOI:10.2307/3324624