The NCEP–FNMOC Combined Wave Ensemble Product: Expanding Benefits of Interagency Probabilistic Forecasts to the Oceanic Environment

• Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 94; no. 12; pp. 1893 - 1905
• Main Authors: Alves, Jose-Henrique G.M, Wittmann, Paul, Sestak, Michael, Schauer, Jessica, Stripling, Scott, Bernier, Natacha B, McLean, Janie, Chao, Yung, Chawla, Arun, Tolman, Hendrik, Nelson, Glenn, Klotz, Stephen
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Boston American Meteorological Society 01.12.2013
• Subjects: Accuracy; Collaboration; Marine environment; Meteorology; Neural networks; Ocean circulation; Ocean-atmosphere interaction; Product development; Studies; United States; ANW, Canada; USA
• ISSN: 0003-0007; 1520-0477
• DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00032.1

The U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) have joined forces to establish a first global multi-center ensemble system dedicated to probabilistic forecasts of wind-wave heights. Both centers run independent wave ensemble systems (WES), which are combined onto a multicenter system with 41 members. A performance assessment of the multicenter wave-height product is made relative to altimeter data. Computed estimates of mean errors, ability to represent uncertainty, and reliability of probabilistic forecasts indicate that the multicenter ensemble product outperforms individual WES and deterministic wave models alike. The investigation includes an evaluation made at NCEP's National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the multicenter WES product, including severe sea-state events. The interagency collaboration has provided an opportunity to investigate in more depth the properties of wave ensembles, which has led to planned improvements that are expected to increase the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts within the oceanic environment. These outcomes are expected to be of great benefit to the society, the economy, and the environment. The successful operational implementation of the multicenter product has brought new opportunities for further collaboration with operational centers in North America, and a planned upgrade to the current interagency system is the inclusion of 20 additional members from a WES under development at Environment Canada.