Stochastic group preference modelling in the multiplicative AHP: A model of group consensus

• Published in: European journal of operational research Vol. 110; no. 1; pp. 99 - 111
• Main Author: Van den Honert, R.C.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.10.1998; Elsevier; Elsevier Sequoia S.A
• Series: European Journal of Operational Research
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Decision making; Decision theory; Decision theory. Utility theory; Exact sciences and technology; Group consensus; Group dynamics; Group preference model; Hierarchies; Interval judgements of impact scores; Multiplicative analytic hierarchy process; Operational research and scientific management; Operational research. Management science; Operations research; Probability; Random variables; Stochastic models; Studies; Multiplicative analytic hierarchy process; Interval judgements of impact scores; Group consensus; Group preference model; Social decision; Stochastic model; Decision making; Preference; Decision theory; Analytic hierarchy process; Modeling
• ISSN: 0377-2217; 1872-6860
• DOI: 10.1016/S0377-2217(97)00243-9

This paper proposes a model for the representation of a consensus-seeking group decision making process under the multiplicative variant of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In particular, it proposes a group preference model which expresses the group's preference intensity judgements as random variables with associated probability distributions, and the structure of the multiplicative AHP is exploited to derive interval judgements for the alternatives' final impact scores as perceived by the group. These interval judgements can be used to determine the probability that a rank reversal may occur amongst alternatives due to the group preference uncertainty, i.e. to assess the stability of the final impact score vector, which in turn offers information about the degree of consensus within the group about the decision.