A dynamic analysis of human welfare in a warming planet

• Published in: Journal of public economics Vol. 95; no. 11; pp. 1607 - 1620
• Main Authors: Llavador, Humberto, Roemer, John E., Silvestre, Joaquim
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.12.2011
• Subjects: Algorithms; capital; Capital measurement; climate; Climate change; Education; Environmental economics; Global warming; greenhouse gas emissions; greenhouse gases; Growth; humans; labor; Maximin; Modelling; Welfare measurement; D63; Q54; Climate change; Q56; Education; Growth; O40; O41; Q50; Maximin
• ISSN: 0047-2727; 1879-2316
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2011.05.017

Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is this consistent with nondecreasing human welfare? Our welfare or utility index emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. We construct and calibrate a multigenerational model with intertemporal links provided by education, physical capital, knowledge and the environment. We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Pure Sustainability Optimization (or Intergenerational Maximin) criterion, and, second, the Sustainable Growth Optimization criterion, that maximizes the utility of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. We apply these criteria to our calibrated model via a novel algorithm inspired by the turnpike property. The computed paths yield levels of utility higher than the level at reference year 2000 for all generations. They require the doubling of the fraction of labor resources devoted to the creation of knowledge relative to the reference level, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumption and leisure are similar to the reference ones. On the other hand, higher growth rates require substantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education. ► Replaces discounted-utilitarian objective with ‘sustainable growth’. ► Calculates optimal paths which constrain CO2 concentration to low levels. ► Utility modeled as including consumption, leisure, education, knowledge and biospheric quality. ► Compares optimal paths to ones in which utility is consumption only.