Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China

• Published in: International journal of environmental research and public health Vol. 15; no. 1; p. 47
• Main Authors: Xu, Chengdong, Xiao, Gexin, Wang, Jinfeng, Zhang, Xiangxue, Liang, Jinjun
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Switzerland MDPI AG 29.12.2017; MDPI
• Subjects: Campylobacter; Developing countries; Disease control; Dysentery; Humidity; LDCs; Precipitation; Public health; Sanitation; Seasons; Shigellosis; Spacetime; Variables; Beijing China; China; bacillary dysentery; spatial-temporal risk; meteorological factors; spatial-temporal model
• ISSN: 1660-4601; 1661-7827; 1660-4601
• DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15010047

Bacillary dysentery remains a public health concern in the world. Hunan Province is one of the provinces having the highest risk of bacillary dysentery in China, however, the spatial-temporal distribution, variation of bacillary dysentery and sensitivity to meteorological factors in there are unclear. In this paper, a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) was used to detect space-time variation, and effects of meteorological factors between 2010 and 2015. The risk of bacillary dysentery showed apparent spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The highest risk occurred in the summer season. Economically undeveloped mountainous areas in the west and south of the province had the highest incidence rates. Twenty three (18.9%) and 20 (16.4%) counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Among the hotspots, 11 counties (47.8%) exhibited a rapidly decreasing trend, suggesting they may become low-risk areas in the future. Of the cold spot counties, six (30%) showed a slowly decreasing trend, and may have a higher risk in the future. Among meteorological factors, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed all played a significant role in the spatial-temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery risk. These findings can contribute to the implementation of an early warning system for controlling and preventing bacillary dysentery.