Maximum-entropy weighting of multiple earth climate models

• Published in: Climate dynamics Vol. 39; no. 3-4; pp. 755 - 765
• Main Author: Niven, Robert K.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer-Verlag 01.08.2012; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Atmospheric circulation; Climate change; Climate models; Climatology; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Cost benefit analysis; Dynamic meteorology; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Entropy; Entropy (Physics); Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Geophysics. Techniques, methods, instrumentation and models; Geophysics/Geodesy; Maximum entropy; Meteorology; Oceanography; Simulation; Thermodynamics; Australia; Cost-benefit analysis; Finite-time information limit; Thermodynamics; Maximum entropy method; Boltzmann principle; Climate model; Multimodel; Weighting; Ensemble forecast; Climate models; Probabilistic model; Cost benefit analysis; maximum entropy analysis; Climate prediction; climate change
• ISSN: 0930-7575; 1432-0894
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1163-5

A maximum entropy-based framework is presented for the synthesis of projections from multiple Earth climate models. This identifies the most representative (most probable) model from a set of climate models—as defined by specified constraints—eliminating the need to calculate the entire set. Two approaches are developed, based on individual climate models or ensembles of models, subject to a single cost (energy) constraint or competing cost-benefit constraints. A finite-time limit on the minimum cost of modifying a model synthesis framework, at finite rates of change, is also reported.